Polls released show a dramatic rise in support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party in Southampton, with the party overtaking both Labour and the Conservatives locally and even nationally. According to the latest projection from Electoral Calculus, both Southampton Itchen and Southampton Test, currently held by Labour MPs Satvir Kaur and Darren Puffy are predicted to flip to Reform UK if a general election were held today. Even more striking, the same model places Reform UK as the largest party in Parliament, potentially securing a majority government.
Sam Wright, Chairman of Reform UK South, attributes the party’s momentum to a groundswell of disillusioned voters. “I have heard so many people on the doorstep, on our high streets and online say that if Reform UK did not exist they would not vote at all. It is increasingly clear from recent polling that Reform UK is the real common sense alternative that the people want,” Wright said.
The rapid shift in voter sentiment reflects deep frustration with both major parties. Reform UK has capitalized on anger towards the Conservatives, accusing them of “managed decline” over 14 years in power. Critics cite soaring energy prices, a heavy tax burden, and what they call a disastrous failure to reduce immigration, both legal and illegal. Labour, meanwhile, faces criticism from Reform UK for what the party describes as “bankrupting Britain”—and Southampton in particular—through reckless spending on net zero initiatives, rising costs linked to illegal immigration, and mounting national debt. Reform argues that Labour’s proposed wealth taxes and higher employer costs are driving away investment and risking a broader economic slump.
Reform UK’s economic pledges include cutting corporation tax, scrapping IR35 rules, raising the VAT threshold, increasing the personal allowance to £20,000, abolishing inheritance tax for estates under £2 million, and removing VAT on energy bills.
On immigration, the party promises a 20% national insurance surcharge for foreign workers, withdrawal from the European Court of Human Rights, a freeze on non-essential migration, tighter student visa controls, and a policy of no benefits for new arrivals. The party also vows to tackle government spending by reviewing NHS, civil service, and local government contracts, scrapping annual green energy subsidies, and accelerating the shift to nuclear energy.
Wright claims the party is already making a difference locally: “Reform UK are bringing experienced business owners and professionals into local government at all levels, alongside long-serving councillors and beginning to demonstrate in local authorities that our policies and plans work, uncover and remove wastage and actually deliver services for citizens. This evidence will be visible for everyone at our next elections at all levels.”
With the next general election looming, the Labour government faces an uphill battle especially with Reform UK gaining ground in key areas like Southampton. The party’s message seems to strike a chord with voters across the South, where frustration with the political status quo is running high. This recent polling shows a real appetite for change among the people of Southampton, many of whom feel ignored by what they see as a “Uniparty” in Westminster. The lingering discontent over Brexit and rising migration levels has only deepened this sense of disconnect, leaving voters eager for a government that listens to their concerns.
