Labour has crashed to its worst poll rating since taking office, as Reform UK surges into the lead following a bruising fortnight for Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
A poll released this week by Find Out Now placed Labour at just 16 per cent of the vote—its lowest level since its landslide victory in July 2024. The figures, from a Find Out Now survey of 4,795 adults on September 17 and 18, showed Labour and the Conservatives tied on 16 per cent, with Labour down three points and the Tories flatlining. Reform UK, meanwhile, soared ahead on 34 per cent, cementing its position as the country’s most popular party.
The poll comes after a torrid spell for the Prime Minister. Sir Keir’s attempt to reset his government was thrown off course earlier this month by the resignation of his deputy, Angela Rayner, who quit on September 5 as both deputy Labour leader and housing secretary following a Telegraph investigation into her tax affairs.
Just six days later, the scandal deepened. Lord Mandelson, Britain’s ambassador to the US and a key Labour power broker, was abruptly sacked after new emails surfaced showing the depth of his friendship with the late Jeffrey Epstein. The fallout from both episodes has rocked Labour’s standing, with the party haemorrhaging support at a pace not seen in years.
The survey also puts the Liberal Democrats on 13 per cent—up one on the week—and the Greens on 12 per cent. If the numbers were replicated at a general election, Sir Ed Davey’s Lib Dems would become the official opposition with 52 seats, Labour would be reduced to just 44 MPs, and the Conservatives to a rump of 19.
The figures mark an extraordinary reversal of fortunes for Labour, which won 34 per cent of the popular vote just over a year ago. The party’s support appears to have more than halved since its general election triumph, with Reform UK capitalising on public anger over the recent scandals and a sense of drift at the heart of government.
There was a rare glimmer of good news for Sir Keir and his new Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, this week. Two migrants were finally deported under the “one in, one out” agreement with France. But Channel crossings remain at record levels, with hundreds more migrants landing on British shores on Friday alone.
The turmoil has reignited Labour’s internal divisions. Last week, Clive Lewis became the first Labour MP to openly suggest Sir Keir should step aside. While no other MPs have joined the rebellion, speculation is mounting in Westminster that Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, could return to Parliament and mount a leadership challenge.
Labour’s dire polling numbers set the stage for a tense annual conference in Liverpool, which opens on Sunday September 28, and pile pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of her crucial Budget on November 26. For Sir Keir Starmer, the next few weeks could prove make or break for the government and UK.
