The Government’s decision to push back the creation and election of four new mayoralties, in areas where Reform UK is riding high in the polls, has prompted accusations of political strategy interfering with local democracy. Reform UK, the insurgent Right-wing party, would have won every delayed mayoral contest if the latest polling is to be believed.
Zia Yusuf, a former chairman and now head of policy for Reform UK, minced no words: “This is a blatant attempt to stop big wins for our party.” The Conservative government and Labour both point to complications from ongoing local government reorganisation as the true reason for Thursday’s delay, but the move lands at a rather convenient moment for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, which is lagging far behind in the councils affected.
Those affected are Greater Essex, Hampshire and the Solent, Norfolk and Suffolk, and Sussex and Brighton. In each, polling consistently shows Reform UK outpacing both main parties, with Labour nowhere near contention.
According to a recent aggregation by The Telegraph newspaper, Reform is polling nationally at 29.6 percent, leaving Labour trailing at 18.7 percent – just a hair above the Tories. Across the south of England excluding London, Labour has sunk to fifth place, behind the Greens. In Essex, Reform’s projected vote share stands at 34 percent—well ahead of the Conservatives and leaving Labour out of the running. In Norfolk and Suffolk, Reform was also polling at 34 percent when a major survey was conducted in September. The party holds a narrower lead in Hampshire and the Solent (27 percent) and faces a close race in Sussex and Brighton, where a Liberal Democrat candidate trails Reform by just three points, 25 to 22 percent.
The official justification for the election delay centers on reorganisation: Angela Rayner, former deputy prime minister, had already postponed nine local elections in recent years to pave the way for the new combined authorities led by powerful mayors. The aim is a streamlined structure, scrapping district-level councils in favor of consolidated unitary councils that control all local services and can then collaborate as a combined authority.
Still, that restructuring has not stopped Reform from making gains elsewhere. Last May, the party picked up over 600 council seats and seized control of 10 councils, including in Kent and Lincolnshire. Reform also flipped a historically solid Labour seat in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, overcoming a 14,000-vote majority after MP Mike Amesbury resigned following conviction for assault.
The September YouGov poll found that Reform UK would win a general election held at the time—though likely without an outright majority—powered by expected sweeps across the same regions now facing mayoral delays. Reform was projected to take 17 out of the 20 new Greater Essex constituencies and 13 out of 17 in Norfolk and Suffolk.
For now, the postponement denies Reform a potential string of headline-grabbing victories, as questions linger about whether technicalities or political calculation truly drove the government’s decision. As polling numbers hold steady in their favor, Reform’s leaders and supporters are left wondering what might have been—and whether the next round of elections will provide the breakthrough they believe is closer with every delay.
