Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is on course for the biggest parliamentary majority in modern history, with the Conservatives collapsing to just seven MPs, according to an explosive a new nationwide poll. The seat-by-seat MRP survey, conducted by communications agency PLMR in partnership with Electoral Calculus, projects Reform winning an astonishing 445 seats, leaving Labour with just 73 if an election were held tomorrow.
The poll makes for grim reading among Westminster’s senior ranks especially Kemi Badenoch who is destined to lead a decimated Conservative Party and lose her seat, with Reform poised to topple a swathe of household names from both Labour and Conservative benches. Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband are all at risk of losing their seats to Reform, according to the projections. The threat extends beyond Labour: Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, along with high-profile Tories such as Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman, Rishi Sunak, and Iain Duncan Smith, could also be ousted in a political earthquake. The upheaval isn’t limited to the two main parties; Labour’s Shabana Mahmood and Wes Streeting are in danger of losing their seats to the newly resurgent “Your Party,” underlining just how fractured the political landscape has become.
With a general election still likely three years away, the poll’s findings suggest that the economy and cost of living will remain at the centre of public debate, and political survival. Some 59 per cent of voters now cite household finances as their top priority for government action this autumn, ahead of immigration and border control on 47 per cent. The NHS, long a dominant issue in British politics, ranks third at 44 per cent, while crime, justice, and policing trail at 22 per cent. The message is clear: voters want action on the cost of living, and they want to see it fast.
The findings, which redraw the political map in extraordinary fashion, come with a significant caveat: tactical voting could still block Farage’s path to power. More than a third of Labour supporters now say they would be prepared to back the Tories in order to stop Reform, an instinct that threatens to upend headline predictions.
The polling underscores the centrality of economic anxiety in today’s politics. Nearly six in ten voters now cite the cost of living as their main concern—dwarfing immigration and the NHS. That mood is fuelling a collapse in support for the traditional parties, with Reform commanding 36 per cent of the vote, Labour trailing on 21 per cent, and the Conservatives slumping to just 15 per cent. The numbers point to a realignment of voter loyalties unprecedented in recent times, driven by a sense that none of the established parties have credible answers to falling living standards.
Yet even as Reform surges, the poll points to the limits of populist momentum in a fragmented landscape. Tactical voting, once a niche practice, is becoming second nature to many, with large numbers of Labour voters willing to back the Conservatives locally to keep Farage’s party out. Progressive voters have grown increasingly willing to coordinate in order to thwart the Right’s advance, turning elections into a patchwork of local electoral pacts rather than a straightforward national contest. That cross-party pragmatism could mean Reform’s theoretical dominance on raw vote share evaporates once turnout, candidate credibility and tactical discipline are taken into account.
Beneath the headline figures, the poll reveals deeper social shifts. Reform’s strongest gains are in the most economically pressured areas of England—former industrial or coastal seats that once relied on Labour. That realignment echoes similar trends across Europe, where right-populist movements have converted economic insecurity into political capital.
Meanwhile, the emergence of “Your Party” on the Left is further fracturing Labour’s coalition, creating space for Farage’s bloc to become the gravitational centre of opposition—even if it never governs outright. All three major parties now face a legitimacy deficit, with few voters trusting any of them to address everyday financial pressures. Each is being punished for perceived detachment from the realities of ordinary life.
The timing of this poll, just ahead of the Autumn Budget, offers the Government a narrow window to show real progress on household finances. Fiscal prudence alone is unlikely to cut through; the challenge is to deliver visible reductions in costs for working families, and soon. Failure to do so risks cementing the impression that Reform speaks more directly to public frustration than either main party.
Full data available at: https://plmr.co.uk/theroadto2029/
